The impact of climate change on tourism in Germany,the UK and Ireland: a simulation study

We downscale the results of a global tourism simulation model at a national resolution to a regional resolution. We use this to investigate the impact of climate change on the regions of Germany, Ireland and the UK. Because of climate change, tourists from all three countries would spend more holidays in the home country. In all three countries, climate change would first reduce the number of international arrivals—as Western European international tourist demand falls—but later increase numbers—as tourism demand from increasingly rich tropical countries grows. In Ireland and the UK, the regional pattern of demand shifts is similar to the international one: tourism shifts north. In Germany, the opposite pattern is observed as the continental interior warms faster than the coast: tourism shifts south.

Inventories and Distribution of Radiocaesium in Arctic Marine Sediments: Influence of Biological and Physical Processes

Abstract

Extensive surveys of sediment burdens of radiocaesium, specifically ¹³⁷Cs, and other radioactive contaminants in the Arctic during the 1990′s, indicate that almost all anthropogenic radionuclides buried on continental shelves adjacent to Alaska are derived from global bomb fallout. the ¹³⁷Cs (half-life: 30.2y) activities observed in surface (0–4 cm) marine sediments however, vary widely, albeit much less than the expected current inventory resulting from bomb fallout at this latitude (～100mBq cm^?2). This observed geographical variation provided the opportunity to evaluate physical and biological mechanisms that may affect caesium biogeochemistry on Arctic continental shelves. We investigated whether high biological productivity in portions of the Bering and Chukchi Seas is effective in removing dissolved radiocaesium from the water column, and whether biological production in overlying water affects total radiocaesium inventories in sediments. Based upon C/N ratios in the organic fraction of shallow sediments, we found no evidence that higher inventories or surface activities of radiocaesium are present in areas with higher deposition of particulate organic matter. Based upon stable carbon isotope ratios of organic matter in sediments, we found no evidence that terrestrial runoff contributes proportionally to higher surface activities, although terrestrial runoff may affect total inventories of the radionuclide. Radiocaesium content of surface sediments was significantly correlated with total organic carbon content of sediments and the proportion of sediments in the finest sediment fractions. Because high current flow can also be expected to influence distributions of those sedimentary parameters, we conclude that re-distribution of     

Phosphorus in Phoenix: a budget and spatial representation of phosphorus in an urban ecosystem

As urban environments dominate the landscape, we need to examine how limiting nutrients such as phosphorus (P) cycle in these novel ecosystems. Sustainable management of P resources is necessary to ensure global food security and to minimize freshwater pollution. We used a spatially explicit budget to quantify the pools and fluxes of P in the Greater Phoenix Area in Arizona, USA, using the boundaries of the Central Arizona-Phoenix Long-Term Ecological Research site. Inputs were dominated by direct imports of food and fertilizer for local agriculture, while most outputs were small, including water, crops, and material destined for recycling. Internally, fluxes were dominated by transfers of food and feed from local agriculture and the recycling of human and animal excretion. Spatial correction of P dynamics across the city showed that human density and associated infrastructure, especially asphalt, dominated the distribution of P pools across the landscape. Phosphorus fluxes were dominated by agricultural production, with agricultural soils accumulating P. Human features (infrastructure, technology, and waste management decisions) and biophysical characteristics (soil properties, water fluxes, and storage) mediated P dynamics in Phoenix. P cycling was most notably affected by water management practices that conserve and recycle water, preventing the loss of waterborne P from the ecosystem. P is not intentionally managed, and as a result, changes in land use and demographics, particularly increased urbanization and declining agriculture, may lead to increased losses of P from this system. We suggest that city managers should minimize cross-boundary fluxes of P to the city. Reduced P fluxes may be accomplished through more efficient recycling of waste, therefore decreasing dependence on external nonrenewable P resources and minimizing aquatic pollution. Our spatial approach and consideration of both pools and fluxes across a heterogeneous urban ecosystem increases the utility of nutrient budgets for city managers. Our budget explicitly links processes that affect P cycling across space with the management of other resources (e.g., water). A holistic management strategy that deliberately couples the management of P and other resources should be a priority for cities in achieving urban sustainability.     

Evaluation of potential responses to invasive non-native species with structured decision making

In managing invasions and colonizations of non-native species, eradication or control efforts must proceed quickly. There are 2 challenges in taking such quick action. First, managers frequently have to choose among complex and often competing environmental, social, and economic objectives. Second, the effects are highly uncertain. We applied participatory structured decision making (SDM) to develop a response plan for the recent invasion of non-native myrtle rust (Uredo rangelii) in Australia. Structured decision making breaks a complex decision process into 5 steps: identify problems (i.e., decisions to be made), formulate objectives, develop management alternatives, estimate consequences of implementing those alternatives, and select preferred alternatives by evaluating trade-offs among alternatives. To determine the preferred mid- to long-term alternatives to managing the rust, we conducted 2 participatory workshops and 18 interviews with individuals to elicit stakeholders' key concerns and convert them into 5 objectives (minimize management cost, minimize economic cost to industry, minimize effects on natural ecosystems and landscape amenities, and minimize environmental effects associated with use of fungicide) and to identify the 5 management alternatives (full eradication, partial eradication, slow spread, live with it [i.e., major effort invested in mitigation of effects], and do nothing). We also developed decision trees to graphically represent the essence of the decision by displaying the relations between uncertainties and decision points. In the short term or before local expansion of myrtle rust, the do-nothing alternative was not preferred, but an eradication alternative was only recommended if the probability of eradication exceeded about 40%. After the expansion of myrtle rust, the slow-the-spread alternative was preferred regardless of which of the short-term management alternatives was selected at an earlier stage. The participatory SDM approach effectively resulted in informed and transparent response plans that incorporated multiple objectives in decision-making processes under high uncertainty.     

Sex allocation and local mate competition in Old World non-pollinating fig wasps

The populations of many species are structured such that mating is not random and occurs between members of local patches. When patches are founded by a single female and all matings occur between siblings, brothers may compete with each other for matings with their sisters. This local mate competition (LMC) selects for a female-biased sex ratio, especially in species where females have control over offspring sex, as in the parasitic Hymenoptera. Two factors are predicted to decrease the degree of female bias: (1) an increase in the number of foundress females in the patch and (2) an increase in the fraction of individuals mating after dispersal from the natal patch. Pollinating fig wasps are well known as classic examples of species where all matings occur in the local patch. We studied non-pollinating fig wasps, which are more diverse than the pollinating fig wasps and also provide natural experimental groups of species with different male morphologies that are linked to different mating structures. In this group of wasps, species with wingless males mate in the local patch (i.e. the fig fruit) while winged male species mate after dispersal. Species with both kinds of male have a mixture of local and non-local mating. Data from 44 species show that sex ratios (defined as the proportion of males) are in accordance with theoretical predictions: wingless male species<wing-dimorphic male species<winged male species. These results are also supported by a formal comparative analysis that controls for phylogeny. The foundress number is difficult to estimate directly for non-pollinating fig wasps but a robust indirect method leads to the prediction that foundress number, and hence sex ratio, should increase with the proportion of patches occupied in a crop. This result is supported strongly across 19 species with wingless males, but not across 8 species with winged males. The mean sex ratios for species with winged males are not significantly different from 0.5, and the absence of the correlation observed across species with wingless males may reflect weak selection to adjust the sex ratio in species whose population mating structure tends not to be subdivided. The same relationship is also predicted to occur within species if individual females adjust their sex ratios facultatively. This final prediction was not supported by data from a wingless male species, a male wing-dimorphic species or a winged male species. Received: 27 July 1998 / Received in revised form: 11 January 1999 / Accepted: 16 January 1999     

A systematic review of snake translocations to identify potential tactics for reducing postrelease effects

Advancements in the field of reintroduction biology are needed, but understanding of how to effectively conduct translocations, particularly with snakes, is lacking. We conducted a systematic review of snake translocation studies to identify potential tactics for reducing postrelease effects. We included studies on intentional, human-mediated, wild–wild, or captive–wild translocations to any location, regardless of motive or number of snakes translocated. Only studies that presented results for at least 1 of 4 outcomes (movement behavior, site fidelity, survival, or population establishment) were included. We systematically searched 4 databases for published studies and used 5 methods to search the gray literature. Our search and screening criteria yielded 121 data sources, representing 130 translocation cases. We quantified the association between 15 translocation tactics and short-term translocation outcomes by calculating odds ratios and used forest plots to display results. Snake translocations involved 47 species (from mainly 2 families), and most were motivated by research, were monitored for at least 6 months, occurred in North America, and took place from the 1990s onward. The odds of a positive snake translocation outcome were highest with release of captive reared or juvenile snakes, release of social groups together, delayed release, provision of environmental enrichment or social housing before release, or minimization of distance translocated. The odds of a positive outcome were lowest when snakes were released early in their active season. Our results do not demonstrate causation, but outcomes of snake translocation were associated with 8 tactics (4 of which were strongly correlated). In addition to targeted comparative studies, we recommend practitioners consider the possible influence of these tactics when planning snake translocations.     

Shareholder activism on environmental issues: A study of proposals at large US corporations (2000–2003)

Socially Responsible Investing (SRI) has carved out a niche in the financial world, and each year a large number of shareholder proposals are filed at public companies in the US related to issues of corporate social responsibility (CSR). While the primary interests of CSR activists remain distinct from those of traditional corporate governance (CG) activists, the two groups do share an interest in minimizing the risk of negative environmental or social impacts from the operations of the corporation. They also share the objective of achieving transparency and accountability in corporate decision‐making. In relation to this latter objective, they both face similar challenges concerning conflicts of interest among key institutional shareholders. This article examines the record of shareholder proposal filing and voting from 2000–2003 for 81 large US public corporations to determine the relative prominence of CSR shareholder activism and the prospects for effective CSR shareholder activism on key environmental issues. The analysis of these data finds that nearly half (45%) of all shareholder resolutions are related to CSR, and that those resolutions which combine issues of CSR with traditional CG activism appeal to slightly more shareholders than issues of CSR alone. The article also examines shareholder activism at the micro level with a case study of the voting record at ExxonMobil. The article finds that CSR‐related shareholder activism represents the majority of shareholder activism within that firm and that resolutions targeted at climate change are particularly well supported. These resolutions draw a connection between environmental risk and risk to shareholder value. While numerous challenges remain for both CG and CSR activists, the article concludes that reforms that strengthen shareholder rights and corporate governance more generally will also benefit CSR activists and the environmental policies they promote in particular. The article ends with some proposed solutions for addressing the perceived conflicts of interest in corporate governance and the shareholder voting process.     

Aligning science and policy to achieve evolutionarily enlightened conservation

There is increasing recognition among conservation scientists that long‐term conservation outcomes could be improved through better integration of evolutionary theory into management practices. Despite concerns that the importance of key concepts emerging from evolutionary theory (i.e., evolutionary principles and processes) are not being recognized by managers, there has been little effort to determine the level of integration of evolutionary theory into conservation policy and practice. We assessed conservation policy at 3 scales (international, national, and provincial) on 3 continents to quantify the degree to which key evolutionary concepts, such as genetic diversity and gene flow, are being incorporated into conservation practice. We also evaluated the availability of clear guidance within the applied evolutionary biology literature as to how managers can change their management practices to achieve better conservation outcomes. Despite widespread recognition of the importance of maintaining genetic diversity, conservation policies provide little guidance about how this can be achieved in practice and other relevant evolutionary concepts, such as inbreeding depression, are mentioned rarely. In some cases the poor integration of evolutionary concepts into management reflects a lack of decision‐support tools in the literature. Where these tools are available, such as risk‐assessment frameworks, they are not being adopted by conservation policy makers, suggesting that the availability of a strong evidence base is not the only barrier to evolutionarily enlightened management. We believe there is a clear need for more engagement by evolutionary biologists with policy makers to develop practical guidelines that will help managers make changes to conservation practice. There is also an urgent need for more research to better understand the barriers to and opportunities for incorporating evolutionary theory into conservation practice.     

Influence of urban form on landscape pattern and connectivity in metropolitan regions: a comparative case study of Phoenix,AZ, USA,and Izmir,Turkey

Although ecological connectivity conservation in urban areas has recently been recognized as an important issue, less is known about its relationship to urban form and landscape pattern. This study investigates how urban morphology influences regional ecosystem pattern and landscape connectivity. Two metropolitan landscapes, Phoenix, AZ, USA, and Izmir, Turkey, were compared, both of which are fast-growing regions in their national context. A wide range of variables were considered for identifying natural and urban properties. The natural characteristics include typology of urban ecosystems, urban to natural cover ratio, dominant habitat type, urban biodiversity, landscape context, and connectivity conservation efforts. Urban parameters examine urban form, urban extent, urban cover proportion, growth rate, populations, urban gradient, major drivers of urbanization, urban density, and mode/approach of urban development. Twelve landscape metrics were measured and compared across the natural patches. Results show that there is little difference in landscape connectivity in the rural zones of Phoenix and Izmir, although Phoenix has slightly higher connectivity values. The connectivity variance in urbanized areas, however, is significantly dependent on the region. For example, Phoenix urban zones have substantially lower connectivity than either urban or suburban zones in Izmir. Findings demonstrate that small and compact urban settlements with more dense populations are more likely to conserve landscape connectivity compared to multiple-concentric but amalgamated urban form spreading all over the landscape (aka urban sprawl).     

Normal and abnormal fetal cardiac anatomy

The heart is often perceived as a difficult organ to understand by ultrasound during fetal life. This is undoubtedly reflected in the low detection rate of cardiac abnormalities as compared to those of most other organ systems in the fetus. In this article we start by updating classical concepts of cardiac embryology, many of which were previously difficult to understand since they were overly simplistic or purely observational. We then lead on to the structure and growth of the fully formed fetal heart where we review the anatomy and ultrasound appearances in detail and provide comparisons with major abnormalities. We emphasise the fact that a solid understanding of cardiac anatomy can enable those involved in fetal medicine to make full use of the views of the heart that are obtained by ultrasound and which are often only transient. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.